More Remarks on Corona

It is, of course, interesting how the total mortality behaves in times of Corona. Unfortunately, I was searching in vain for numbers in Germany. What I found was a PDF file from Spain. I took the first statistics in the image above from it.

In Germany, each year about 1.1% of the population will die, which is a rate of one in approximately 31000 per day. So I would expect around 1450 deaths each day in Spain. The rate depends, of course, strongly on the age structure of the population. Maybe, I underestimate the pyramidal shape of the ages in Spain, so that the daily total mortality is indeed a bit lower than in Germany. The image suggests around 1200.

A statistical plot of that kind should always have a y-axis that starts with zero. So this plot is a bit misleading. But in any case, it suggests a 50% increase in total mortality per day in the last few days. That is due to Corona. As I said, the problem will average out over the year if appropriate measures are taken, and we might observe only a slight increase in total mortality.

Nevertheless, the main problem remains: We cannot handle the huge numbers of severely sick patients that would occur if we just let everything run as normal.

08. April 2020 von mga010
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